DECEMBER 17, 2014
“Conciliation” is not in Beijing’s playbook. Doubling down on repression may be.
"the city is back to normal - but only on its facade."
The Hong Kong Government has finally given a belated show of the so-called "Hong Kong speed" in restoring circulation on key roads in Admiralty and Causeway Bay within hours of giving an ultimatum of clearance or arrest.
78 days after a massive civil disobedience movement was ignited by police's abortive attempt to break up the pro-democracy crowd by tear gas, the city is back to normal - but only on its facade. Seismic changes in the city's political scene and mainland-Hong Kong relations look imminent in the post-Occupy era.
New game
Even before police on Monday cleared the last remaining camp and arrested 20 protesters in Causeway Bay, a senior Beijing official has given an early warning of a change of tactics, if not policy, towards the city in the light of the massive uproar against a set of rules dictated by Beijing on the 2017 chief executive election. Zhang Rongshun, a vice-chairman of the legislative affairs commission under the National People's Congress Standing Committee, said in Shenzhen on Sunday Hong Kong people need "re-enlightenment" to get a better understanding about "one country, two systems."
Zhang lamented some Hong Kong people "do not have a sense of nationhood, do not know where they are." He called for efforts to build a sense of nationhood among people and to "further develop" the policy of "one country, two systems". There should also be more efforts to explain and help people understand the policy and the Basic Law. Zhang did not elaborate, nor did he reference the Occupy movement in his speech at the annual meeting of the quasi-official Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies (CAHKMS).
Declaring the "illegal occupation" over, Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying has called on citizens to reflect on the important issue of what kind of democracy Hong Kong needs. He said Hong Kong should pursue democracy in accordance with law. He referred to the Basic Law and the relevant decisions dictated by the NPC Standing Committee.
What’s said up there
Remarks made by Zhang and Leung did not bode well in the post-Occupy Hong Kong. According to media reports, a mainland scholar who attended the meeting in Shenzhen said the idea of reviving legislative work on an anti-subversion law, often known as Article 23, was raised. Meeting participants pointed out the pro-establishment forces should step up their work to garner support from voters in the upcoming elections in 2015 (district council) and 2016 (LegCo), in light of the show of strength of civil society groups, in particular those lead by young people, .
Professor Lau Siu-kai, a vice-chairman of the CAHKMSand former head of the government's Central Policy Unit, said it is likely that Beijing would review its policy towards Hong Kong, especially over ways to assert their authority in the city. One possible development is that Beijing will foster closer cooperation with the pro-establishment camp to seek mass support under the banner of securing stability and prosperity, rule of law and social order.
That indeed has been happening. As the civil disobedience protest, also known as Occupy Central, drew near, the pro-establishment force has formed a grand coalition to mobilise the masses to oppose the movement through activities such as collection of signatures and rallies. The combative tactic has been vividly demonstrated in the city-wide battle featuring "yellow ribbon," a symbol of the Occupy, versus the "blue ribbon", the sign that stands for opposition against the Occupy and "support police."
"the chance of a conciliatory approach looks slim."
Vive la resistance
The Hong Kong Federation of Students and Scholarism, the two students groups that spearheaded the protests, have admitted failure to prompt Beijing to change the NPC Standing Committee decision on political reform. But they refused to concede defeat in their civil disobedience movement, adding the second wave of protest would arrive soon, possibly when the electoral bill is tabled to be Legislative Council for its passage in summer.
That may still be a few months away. The post-Occupy battle has begun in earnest to help keep the momentum of defiance going. A coalition of groups has announced a range of "non-cooperation" deeds ordinary people could emulate to put pressure on the government. They include paying public rental on the last day of the payment period. Earlier, pan-democratic legislators have vowed to launch "non-cooperation" movement aimed to block approval of government funding and bills.
Search and destroy
Although the final curtain of Occupy was down, there are no signs of a significant easing of the rivalry between the two camps in its aftermath. The opposite may be even more likely. Police Commissioner Eddie Tsang said on Monday investigations aimed to hunt down instigators of the movement over the next three months. Pressure for the government not to grant leniency to the alleged culprits will no doubt be immense, making the issue of prosecution highly contentious.
At universities, calls have already been made for the sacking of University of Hong Kong's Benny Tai and Chinese University's Chan Kin-man, who are two of the three initiators of the Occupy Central. Student leaders who have been active in the movements have already felt the heat. Aside from key figures such as Federation of Students' Alex Chow Yong-kang and Lester Shum, some office-bearers of student unions in universities have been denied entry into the mainland.
In newsrooms, journalists fear Beijing's invisible hands will become more visible putting pressure on their bosses to tone down the coverage of the civil disobedience campaign.
At the diplomatic front, China's denial of visa to a group of British parliamentarians who tried to visit Hong Kong this month to gather information for a report on the implementation of the Sino-British Joint Declaration is indicative of a hardline approach towards the involvement of foreign governments in the city's universal suffrage debate.
Spared the rod, didn’t work
Billed as the most serious political crisis since 1997, the Umbrella Movement has been compared to the 1967 riots and the July 1 march in 2003. The 1967 riot prompted the British colonial government to change its style of rule and policies to address the grievances of people, in particular youngsters. Following the 2003, 500,000-strong march, the Tung Chee-hwa administration shelved the national security bill, albeit reluctantly. Several ministers stood down. While starting to prepare for the replacement of Tung and intensifying economic-aid policy for Hong Kong, Beijing took a proactive approach on Hong Kong affairs.
History may not repeat itself. True, the shocking outburst of disobedience sentiments among Hong Kong people in the Occupy Movement looks certain to prompt a rethink in Beijing. But the chance of a conciliatory approach looks slim. The worst fear is that Beijing may come to a conclusion that since the carrot-and-stick since 2003 did not work they may opt for batons to scare the spoiled child from playing with the fire of disobedience.
http://harbourtimes.com/openpublish/article/chris-yeung-after-occupy-deluge-20141217
