DECEMBER 10, 2014
Johnny Lau: The Political Landscape after Umbrella Movement
The Umbrella Movement has continued for 2 months. People have varying opinions as to who has gained and who has lost. However, there are two concerns that cannot be ignored, as they are related to Hong Kong’s future political terrain.
The pan-democrats’ political influence and even territory may have already been affected under the side-effects of the Umbrella Movement. Their position in the District Council election next year and LegCo election in 2016 may very well have been impacted and pan-democrats may be facing some setbacks.
The umbrella movement had a good start. Support from the public was well over 50 percent. Unfortunately, at the middle of the movement, extreme situations such as violent collisions or unknown people infiltrating the movement occurred. This led to a rise in public resent to the movement, with citizens thinking organizers and participants had lost control. Especially when civilians were disturbed during the movement, public sentiment began to reverse at times even vigorously. At the same time, the leadership of the campaign had been handed over from the OC trio to HKFS and Scholarism, making the situation more difficult to control.
The pan-democratic camp, who was very much been involved, had been marginalized earlier in the movement. Not only did they fail to take leadership roles, they failed to even offer help. In the end, they were forced to slowly step away. This hasn’t pleased either sides, taking a step back, they will be accused of "giving up the fight for democracy" and "not willing to protect the students." These criticisms will accumulate and infiltrate various communities, and with attacks by the pro-establishment camp, democrats will be attacked from both sides. Some democrats are even met with scolding from the public as they walk-through some neighborhoods, and they dare not talk back. What’s even worse is that a poll held in the later stages of the Umbrella Movement, showed that if the District Council election happened right now, pan-democrats would also lose badly. According to the current situation, pan-democratic campaign will be adversely affected in the coming LegCo election which will be held in 2016, benefiting Beijing, Hong Kong Government and the pro-establishment camp. This cannot be ignored.
Beijing will exercise tougher governance on Hong Kong, especially politically.
Whether Beijing truly does believe it or not, they loath so-called "foreign forces" and "external forces" so much, they have already incorporated them as a target that must be taken down. In fact, the Government has already deemed certain norms in international politics (exchange of experience) as Western countries’ “to infiltrate and hide in Hong Kong for long term goals”. Members from the UK parliament planned to come to Hong Kong to understand the implementation of the Sino-British Joint Declaration, but Beijing deemed the act as intervening in the internal affairs of Hong Kong, and therefore shut the door. In the future, Beijing will only be more vigilant towards "foreign forces" and "external forces".
It is understood that Beijing will strengthen the work in two ways. First, by strengthening youth policies: "winning the minds of the youth". By coordinating with the Government, Beijing will try to boost the patriotism of the young generation. The Government will arrange study tours for no less than thirty thousand young people to the mainland each year. Secondly, they will strengthen the management of party politics. The administration will promote the legislation of "Article 23" at the appropriate time, which will focus on links with foreign political parties in Hong Kong, thereby restricting the democratic camp’s space to maneuver.
Originally, Beijing was in no hurry to legislate “Article 23". However, after the Umbrella Movement, internal forces in Beijing and hawkish Hong Kong pro-establishment camp members have constantly suggested to accelerate “Article 23" legislation, matching Beijing's intention. Therefore, Hong Kong democratic camp may face more pressure in the future.
In addition, Beijing disclosed that if the pan-democrats rejected Beijing's "universal suffrage", then the time for re-discussing universal suffrage will remain unknown. Pan-democrats believe this to be just a bluff against Hong Kong people, but it must be noted: Xi Jinping will not step down until the end of 2022. His influence on Hong Kong will last at least until 2022, and the details to the 2022 CE elections must be finalized before 2021. In other words, Xi tough policy on Hong Kong is likely to continue until he steps down. Which means, there will be no real universal suffrage in 2022.
The above is assessed according to the current political realities. So, pan-democrats, students and Hong Kong people must clearly understand that the fight for democracy is a long process. Be patient, and do not give up.
http://harbourtimes.com/openpublish/article/johnny-lau-political-landscape-after-umbrella-movement-20141210
