DECEMBER 2, 2014
This is not helping. Photo credit: Desiree Fa
The two flies in China’s ointment: Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Dubbed by the Chinese-language weekly magazine Yazhou Zhoukan as the "First Year of the China Century," 2014 looks set to be a year to celebrate for the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Its ascendancy towards the status as the world's Number One economy, overtaking the United States, has stayed on course. The official target of 2014 economic growth in the range of 7% to 7.5% will be achieved. The just-ended Asia-Pacific Economic Forum summit in Beijing last month that saw President Xi Jinping take centre-stage of the global political theatre, symbolising China's growing influence in world affairs. To many, China’s rise seems inevitable. Certainly China’s leaders think so.
But as 2014 is less than one month to go, events in Hong Kong and Taiwan have emerged as the enfants terrible for the Xi team.
Umbrellas and sunflowers
In Hong Kong, the Umbrella Movement entered its third month. Although Beijing has stood firm, refusing to budge on universal suffrage for the 2017 chief executive election, it is faced with growing turbulence in relations with the city, a former British colony that became a special administrative region of China in 1997.
"seismic changes in Taiwan's political landscape...will pose a difficult challenge for the CCP.
If the post-Occupy landscape in Hong Kong remains unclear, the sky change in Taiwan in the wake of the local elections on November 29 has ushered a new phase of uncertainty both within the island and for cross-strait ties. The ruling Kuomintang (KMT), which has adopted a mainland-friendly policy towards Beijing after regaining power in 2008, faces defeat in the next presidential election in 2016. The opposition pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party is poised to make a political comeback, creating waves in mainland-Taiwan relations.
In the island's biggest-ever local elections, the KMT suffered their worst setback since they fled the mainland in 1949. Of the six municipal races, the KMT lost its traditional strongholds in Taipei and Taichung. It was only able to keep New Taipei City (the more populous ring around Taipei, the capital). Results of the so-called "9-in-1" election have been considered a prelude of what is to come in the 2016 presidential election.
Chairwoman of the DPP, Tsai Ying-wen, said in a post-election speech: "This is a victory of Taiwan people. This is the beginning of young people taking up their responsibility." In Taipei's contest, Dr Ko Wen-je, a professor at the National Taiwan University College of Medicine who ran as an non-affiliated candidate, knocked out rival KMT's Sean Lien Sheng-wen, son of the party's veteran leader Lien Chan, by a big margin. Dr Ko, who is widely believed to have the backing of DPP, said: "This is the era of people becoming master... The election result shows the value of Taiwan democracy and the determination of Taipei people in their pursuit of progress."
Not Beijing but...
Despite the fact that cross-strait relations were not a decisive issue in the Saturday elections, the Beijing factor has figured in the rapidly-changing Taiwan politics. There is no denying the lacklustre performance of the Ma Ying-jeou administration in the past six years is to blame for their loss of voters. The list of people's grievances ranged from missteps in education reform, class inequality and income disparity to scandals such as food scare. But his failure to revitalise the economy by forging closer economic ties with the mainland, among other initiatives, has increased his unpopularity.
Worse, the mishandling of a services trade pact signed with Beijing has sparked a series of protests known as "sunflower revolution" in March that saw students seizing the Legislative Yuan and a shelving of the deal. Dr Ko attributed his successful electoral debut to the arrival of a new type of politics in Taiwan's civic movement, which was given a big boost by the power of Internet. Public participation in politics, he said, has entered a new era. Political parties and figures must become more humble, said Dr Ko.
It remains unclear whether the meteoric rise of Dr Ko to the top of the pyramid of power in Taipei marks the rise of the so-called third power in Taiwan politics, countering the KMT and DPP, the two major political parties. The seismic changes in Taiwan's political landscape, not to mention the likely return of DPP to power in 2016, will pose a difficult challenge for the CCP.
3 systems
Sometimes called "three places (in) two straits", the fate of the mainland, Taiwan and Hong Kong have become increasingly intertwined. When late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping came up with the "one country, two systems" concept-turned-policy for post-1997 Hong Kong in the early 1980s, he had hoped it would stand a chance to be accepted by Taiwan people if it worked well in Hong Kong. Following the success of intensified economic integration with Hong Kong, Beijing again changed tact after the KMT gained power in 2008 to try to warm political ties by playing the China economy card through closer economic relations.
However, Deng's game plan hasn’t worked out.. The growing economic dependency of Hong Kong on the mainland and Beijing's paternalistic political approach in dealing with people's aspiration for democracy have sent chilly winds across Taiwan, particularly in the last few months.
Hong Kong no role model
As Taiwan people watched the Umbrella Movement unfolding, the scenario of "Today's Hong Kong, tomorrow's Taiwan" has haunted their minds. Their feeling of unease and uncertainty will put pressure on the present and future Taiwan administrations to tread more carefully in their mainland policy. The pace of economic interactions across the Strait is likely to be slowed down. Any Taiwan administration will have to prove the economic gains from interactions with the mainland are being shared fairly and evenly in the society, not only putting money in the hands of big business at the cost of Taiwan’s political subjugation.
Moreover, the "Sunflower Movement" has had a subtle impact on the Occupy protest, in particular among youngsters in Hong Kong. Hopes of "Today's Taiwan, tomorrow's Hong Kong" have inspired their hearts and minds, energising their spirit of fighting for true democracy from the Communist authorities who dare not to take any chance of giving people a real say in electing their leader.
Last week's clearance of the occupied area in Mong Kok may emerge as a sign of the beginning of an end of the Umbrella Movement. But like the election drama in Taiwan on Saturday, they are signs of political restlessness in relations in the "three places, two straits" in the years ahead.
http://harbourtimes.com/openpublish/article/terrible-two-china%E2%80%99s-problem-children-20141202
