Ahead of his annual policy address, the city’s top official is expected to articulate his vision before the legislature debates what comes next
GARY.CHEUNG@SCMP.COM
PUBLISHED : Sunday, 03 January, 2016, 7:00am
UPDATED : Sunday, 03 January, 2016, 7:00am
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying (centre), pictured here in November, could seek re-election in 2017. Photo: Sam Tsang
Four things to know about the January 13 address:
1. Why it’s a make-or-break moment
This is Leung’s fourth policy address since he assumed office in July 2012 and his last chance at having a full year to announce and execute substantive policy initiatives. In January 2017, he would be expected to be in full campaign mode for his last policy address as it would be just two months before the chief executive election.
Last July, Leung dropped a strong hint that he intended to seek a second term. For this reason, the 2016 policy address would amount to a make-or-break chance for Leung to boost both his flagging popularity and his prospects for re-election.
While the next chief executive would be chosen by a 1,200-strong Election Committee dominated by the business and professional elite, Beijing cannot afford to completely shrug off public opinion in the chief executive race.
According to a tracking survey conducted from December 16 to 21 by the University of Hong Kong’s public opinion programme, Leung’s popularity rating languished at 42.7 out of a possible 100 marks – not a record low but reflective of his lacklustre standing over the past year.
City University political scientist James Sung Lap-kung was among those who viewed 2016 as a make-or-break year for Leung, with a strong policy address pivotal to his securing Beijing’s endorsement for re-election. Sung said observers would be on the lookout for his latest ideas on land, housing and welfare issues.
“Beijing’s focus will be on Leung’s popularity and whether his land and housing promises can be delivered,” he said. “CY has to think of ways to boost his popularity and social harmony because if his public support continues to be low, it will be difficult for the central government to approve him for another term.”
“He could make new promises in the policy address, but it is more important to deliver on them,” Sung added.
2. A report card filled with promises made and not yet delivered
Leung has made boosting the supply of residential flats and land his top priority. In 2014, his administration set a target of supplying 470,000 flats over the next ten years, with public housing flats accounting for 60 per cent of the total.
According to figures released on December 18, however, available land would provide only 19,420 public housing flats in each of the next five years. That would mean the actual annual production would fall short of the original annual target of 28,200 flats.
On land supply, the government announced last year that 150 sites had been identified for rezoning to produce 210,000 flats over the next five years. Yet of the 150 sites, the town planning process had not started on 87 of them, or more than half.
In his maiden policy address in January 2013, Leung announced the establishment of a committee to study the city’s standard working hours. But three years on, the committee had yet to reach a consensus on whether to legislate the matter.
The chief executive had yet to deliver on a promise in his 2012 chief executive election manifesto to help workers by lowering employers’ withdrawals from the Mandatory Provident Fund to offset employees’ long-service or severance payments. A consultation paper released on December 22 sought public views on scrapping the controversial offsetting mechanism.
Leung achieved a few goals in the area of social welfare, such as securing the Legislative Council’s approval to fund the low-income working family allowance and the old-age living allowance for people aged 65 and above who passed a means test.
3. Time for bold moves, like sacking ministers and healing divisions?
Analysts across the political spectrum said Leung needed to come up with measures in his policy blueprint to ease polarisation, which has plagued the city since the 79-day Occupy Central protests in 2014. Were he to issue a denunciation along the lines of his tirade in last year’s policy address against the University of Hong Kong student magazine Undergrad, he could risk deepening divisions.
The chief executive kicked off his last policy blueprint by accusing Undergrad of championing self-determination in its February 2014 issue as well as through a book titled Hong Kong Nationalism.
Ray Yep Kin-man, a professor at City University’s department of public policy, said one of the easiest ways for Leung to halt a decline in his popularity would be to announce a cabinet reshuffle.
“Sacking some incompetent and unpopular ministers, such as Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim, who has done a poor job in the controversy surrounding the Territory-wide System Assessment, would help boost people’s confidence in his administration,” Yep said.
4. But the economy could trip him up
The city’s economic health looked set to remain weak as third-quarter growth tapered off to 2.3 per cent year-on-year after expanding 2.8 per cent in the previous quarter – the lowest quarterly pace of growth in five quarters. It would appear Leung enjoyed little leeway in implementing costly policy initiatives in light of the expected economic slowdown and less robust public finances.
Yep expected Leung to highlight opportunities arising from the ‘One Belt, One Road’ strategy, Beijing’s push to drive cooperation among countries along the ancient Silk Road trading route to form a cohesive economic area. He was also expected to touch on the nation’s 13th five-year plan slated to start this year.
Additional reporting by Tony Cheung
http://m.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/1896981/will-2016-be-hong-kong-chief-executive-cy-leungs-make-or
