As politicians gear up for the district council elections in November, Stuart Lau and Jeffie Lam look at the voter registration records to determine factors that may alter the balance of power between the pro-establishment and pan-democratic camps.
STUART LAU AND JEFFIE LAM
PUBLISHED : Monday, 07 September, 2015, 4:37am
UPDATED : Monday, 07 September, 2015, 1:12pm
Campaigning will soon start for district elections.Photo: Sam Tsang
Lukewarm youngsters
Talk of Hong Kong's youth and it's hard not to remember last year's Occupy campaign, in which schoolchildren and university students were prominently involved. What is disappointing to some democracy advocates, however, is their relatively lukewarm response to the government's voter-registration drive.
The South China Morning Post found a net increase of only 5 per cent for the 18-20 age group from 106,320 last year. For the 21-25 group, the latest figure is 267,548, up 4 per cent.
The increase for the 26-30 age group was 9.7 per cent from last year's figure of 216,508.
These were relatively low increases compared with those for elderly people.
With the absence of relevant records on the number of eligible voters at the government's Census and Statistics Department, it is impossible to measure the gap between eligible and registered voters.
But the registration figures alone are already disappointing to student activists like Nathan Law Kwun-chung, who heads the Federation of Students, one of the main groups that organised the Occupy movement.
"To a certain extent, I agree that the sense of enthusiasm over political participation has cooled in the short run," he said.
"Some youngsters believe voting is less effective than protests and are unhappy about the lack of results from the umbrella movement."
But Law was optimistic that this year's district council elections could see a much higher overall turnout of young voters.
"In the past young people were generally less interested in the district poll. I'm sure it will be a different story this time," Law said. "If there is a higher turnout of youngsters, the pro-establishment camp's predominant advantage in the district councils might be rewritten."
Eager elderly
They may be elderly, but Hongkongers aged above 56 are far from inactive. When it comes to election politics, they appear more enthusiastic than anyone else.
According to a study of voter registration figures by the South China Morning Post, close to two out of three people who registered as voters this year were 56 or older.
Citywide, 63.3 per cent of all 114,950 new registrations were from people above that age, Registration and Electoral Office figures showed.
Among all age groups, the 66-70 range saw the best registration figures on a year-on-year basis, recording an 18 per cent increase. What makes the statistics all the more interesting is the fact that this group has recorded the highest registration figures throughout all 18 districts.
Elderly voters are generally considered more likely to be conservative and pro-government. The zeal to exercise their voting rights has raised fears among pan-democrats that the coming district council elections may further weaken their already shaky position.
Normally, elderly people would not have registered so late in life unless they were new immigrants. The registration surge among them is attributed to pro-establishment campaign tactics, which opponents say includes luring older people with trivial attractions such as free meals or biscuits.
"The mobilisation by pro-establishment parties may be a reason why there has been an upsurge in newly enfranchised old people," said Jimmy Law Sai-yan of the Democratic Party, who is the only pan-democrat member on North District Council. Some 6,089 people aged above 56 registered as voters in the district this year, 70 per cent of all new registrations there.
"Some of the elderly people may have been stimulated by the radicals or government propaganda in the wake of Occupy," he said.
In Sha Tin, also in the New Territories, some 11,318 people over 56 registered, accounting for some 71 per cent of all new voters.
Chinese University political scientist Ivan Choy Chi-keung said the pro-establishment camp would benefit from the high voter ratio of elderly people, who were more likely to have an antiOccupy and pro-government stance.
http://m.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/education-community/article/1855876/older-hongkongers-sign-vote-district-council
