What will former chief executive's role be in presidential visit? And will 2017 be discussed?
TAMMY TAM TAMMY.TAM@SCMP.COM
PUBLISHED : Monday, 14 September, 2015, 7:00am
UPDATED : Monday, 14 September, 2015, 7:00am
Former Hong Kong chief executive Tung Chee-hwa will join Chinese president Xi Jinping in visiting the US this month. Photo: SCMP Pictures
Is it a big deal whether or not former chief executive Tung Chee-hwa accompanies President Xi Jinping on his coming visit to the United States?
There was quite a fuss in town when it was reported Tung's name was missing from the delegation Xi will take to the US later this month. Some concluded it signalled Tung's influence on Beijing's US affairs was diminishing, while some others saw it as a heavy blow to incumbent Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying, who it's believed is likely to seek a second term.
Tung has been Leung's patron and supporter and is widely seen as the one who, during a trip to the US in 2012, convinced Xi to change his mind and support Leung. Then, Xi was vice-president in charge of Hong Kong affairs. Beijing had originally supported former chief secretary Henry Tang Ying-yen as the city's new leader.
It seems natural some exclaimed Tung was "excluded" when they could not see his name among Xi's entourage, which led to speculation Xi might no longer view Tung as a key adviser. There were even certain reports suggesting some local tycoons had started to regret donating handsome sums to Our Hong Kong Foundation, Tung's new think tank, which aims to study pressing issues for the city, and which will be an asset for whoever Tung supports as the next chief executive.
Now Tung is going to the US, as reported by the South China Morning Post, in a non-official capacity. This highlights the need to have a more comprehensive look at the new thinking of China's leaders.
China always sees Sino-US ties as the most important bilateral relationship. It is understood Xi has taken a "two-legs" approach - official channels aside, non-official and personal exchanges are combined, which is what Tung has been doing.
Tung will not accompany Xi throughout the trip this time, but given his strong connections with political and business heavyweights in the US, the former chief executive is playing his unique role in a specific way. He and long-time friend, former US treasury secretary Henry Paulson, who is the go-between for the US side, have had regular exchanges all these years.
When it comes to diplomatic wrestling, it's not only what people see at official meetings; behind-the-scenes drama can be important too. Tung plays his "non-official" role partly thanks to his capacity as a former leader of Hong Kong.
This special background also prompts some political guessing: will Tung recommend to Xi a candidate he favours as the next chief executive? And will Xi listen to Tung again?
But while it looks like it's high time for those, including Leung, who want to run in 2017 to start making noises and get prepared, there is absolutely no need for Beijing to show any preference at this stage. It's just too early - people still remember the last-minute change of mind by Beijing back in 2012.
Thus, whether Tung will or will not touch on Hong Kong issues during the trip is simply not the crux of the matter, but rather whether Beijing or Xi needs to make a choice now. The situation is obviously not the same as in 2012 when the election campaign reached a critical point.
Nevertheless, it's not at all too early for aspirants for the top job, nor anyone who wants to be "kingmaker". In this regard, Legislative Council president Jasper Tsang Yok-sing has been frank enough to admit he is planning a think tank to provide policy backup to whoever wants to run.
Meanwhile, a new development that has caught the eye of many is a think tank sponsored by Peter Lam Kin-ngok, chairman of the Tourism Board. Once a Tang supporter, Lam has established quite good relations with the Leung administration, though he has denied having any intention to promote any specific candidate.
Understandably, the political reality is that without Beijing's blessing, no candidate can be sure of securing the top job. That explains why many view Tung's relationship with Xi as an indicator as to who could be a likely candidate or win support. The political guessing and calculation over Tung's US trip, however, tells people they need an overall picture of Beijing's decision making before jumping to any conclusion.
http://m.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/1857814/questions-aplenty-former-hong-kong-leader-tung-chee-hwa
